Should Argentina take Messi off penalties?
Retold by Oddsrama · 11 July 2026
Lionel Messi just delivered one of the most stunning World Cup performances in recent memory against Egypt, scoring and creating goals in a miraculous comeback from 2-0 down. Yet amid all the genius, one awkward question keeps surfacing: should Argentina seriously consider removing him from penalty duties? It's a debate that feels almost absurd when discussing a player who has redefined football over two decades, but the numbers from 12 yards are impossible to ignore.
Messi's penalty record at this tournament is brutal. He's now missed two spot-kicks in normal play—against Austria in the group stage and most recently against Egypt when Argentina trailed 1-0. That makes him the first player ever to miss two penalties in regular time at a single World Cup. His overall conversion rate across his career stands at roughly 77% from open play excluding shootouts, which sounds respectable until you stack it against the elite. Harry Kane converts over 90%, Ronaldo sits at 85%, and even Kylian Mbappé reaches 81%. Messi's 78.8% is barely above average for top-tier forwards, and statistically lower than the baseline expectation of 79% for all penalties.
The irony cuts deep: in open play at World Cups, Messi has scored 17 non-penalty goals from chances worth around 13 expected goals—he's outperformed expectation by nearly four goals. Yet from the spot, he underperforms. The paradox likely stems from what makes him special: his genius thrives on improvisation and unpredictability, precisely what penalties eliminate. The spot-kick demands rigid mechanics and predetermined execution, the opposite of how Messi operates. After missing against Egypt, the 39-year-old even broke down in tears, admitting he felt he'd let his teammates down. For Argentina's betting form and knockout hopes, any penalty-conversion improvement could be the difference between glory and disappointment.
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