How to win a World Cup penalty shootout
Retold by Oddsrama · 28 June 2026
As the World Cup knockout stages unfold, penalty shootouts are back in the spotlight. The 2022 tournament delivered a record five shootouts, and with expanded knockout stages this time around, that record could easily be challenged. Looking at data from over three decades of shootouts — 320 penalties across 35 encounters since 1982 — some clear patterns emerge about who thrives and who struggles when it matters most.
Argentina reign supreme in the shootout stakes, winning six of seven attempts, including their 2022 final victory. Germany and Croatia have both gone a perfect four from four, while Spain have become the penalty shootout nightmare story, now holding the record for most misses at nine and losing four of five attempts. On the flip side, Belgium, South Korea, and Paraguay have each hit every kick they've taken. The standout individual performer is Lionel Messi, who has scored in three separate World Cup shootouts at a perfect 100% clip — a feat only matched by Luka Modric. Goalkeeper-wise, Croatia's Dominik Livakovic and Denmark's Danijel Subasic have each saved four spot-kicks in tournament history.
The mechanics matter too. Players aiming for the corners score at rates above 71%, while those going central manage just 61.6% — despite fewer saves down the middle, far more central attempts go wide. Forwards convert at 75%, well above midfielders and defenders. Interestingly, the player taking the eighth penalty overall — second in the fourth round — suffers the worst success rate at just 59.4%, likely crushed by the pressure of keeping their team alive. Going first or second in the shootout order makes virtually no difference to overall winning chances, though the opening taker enjoys a 72.9% success rate that gradually dips under pressure.
For bettors, these patterns matter. Argentina's shootout dominance makes them dangerous in tight matches, while Spain's historical struggles could offer value if knockout-stage encounters look heading to penalties. The data also suggests forward-heavy penalty lineups — and composed finishers aiming for the corners — give sides a real edge when the stakes are highest.
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